Climate change: living in the edge

Greenpeace and scientists make a simple picture to explain the magnitude of mankind’s footprint in Earth’s evolution. They compare the planet, which has an estimated age of 4.600 millions years, to a 46-year old person.

The Modern Man has lived on the planet just for four hours. In the last hour, he discovered agriculture, and in the last minute of that hour the Industrial Revolution gave birth to the backbone of today’s progress, the machine, which soon burned fuel oil.

In the last five seconds, things really went out of man’s hands, and just in the last second, we have realized that we urgently need to change our ways of doing and our priorities in order to have a future.

In that last second, we have learned scary news. The scale of global warming is unprecedented in at least 20,000 years, and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases are at the highest for at least 650,000 years.

Uncomfortable certainty

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988, and two years later produced a first report highlighting that there was a “natural greenhouse effect”, which was being enhanced by human activities and the resulting concentrations of CO2, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere.

More than 3000 scientists from across the world produced, revised and supported the fourth report in 2007.

The IPCC then left no space for doubts.

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

In just a few months, climate change became a major – and trendy- issue, taking over the agenda in international meetings like the Davos Summit, bringing about controversial steps like an environmental tax in London or the UE scheme to cut emissions, and forcing the US government and presidential candidates to recognize that is time to act.

Unbalanced forces and signs

Natural forces have been acting for ages according to cause-effect relations, but nature could not predict that more than 6bn people would be populating the planet, using millions cars and building societies based on highly polluting industries.

The worst news is that changes in climate are accumulative, which means that they will persist for decades and perhaps centuries even if current levels of emissions are minimized.

When it comes to define the evidences proving that climate change is already happening, temperatures, oceans, hurricanes, weather, season alterations and polar icecap are key words.

Temperature: The transformation from the last Ice Age to a warmer climate that allowed life on Earth to adapt to the changes took 5,000 years. Today events are going too fast.

Warming in the last Century caused a 0.74 °C increase in global average temperature, and 11 years between 1995 and 2006 ranked among the top 12 warmest since 1850.

Melting ice: Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Arctic sea ice has shrunk by 2.7 per cent per decade since 1978. A rapid warming is also reported in the Antarctic, with 90% of the world’s fresh water in its icecap.

The American Geophysical Union found that Arctic ice at the North Pole melted at a record rate in the summer of 2007.

“While in the summer of 1980 an ice sheet about the size of the continental United States covered the North Pole, this summer the ice would not have covered the states west of the Mississippi River,” said an expert from the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.

Ocean: Sea level rose at an average rate of about 1.8 mm/year during the years 1961-2003, but for the period 1993-2003 the average was 3.1 mm/year.

Since ocean absorbed almost half of fossil fuel CO2 launched to the atmosphere, it is becoming more acidic. This and sea warming lead to physical, chemical and biological changes affecting patterns of circulation and micro organisms like the phytoplankton, the base of the food web for all marine life.

Weather: Hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and other regions increased since the 1970s, and between 1995 and 2000 rose by 82%, according to a study by experts from University of London.

Cold days, cold nights and frost events became less frequent, while hot days, hot nights and heat waves are now more frequent. Spring events such as the unfolding of leaves, laying of eggs and migration are happening earlier.

Complexity

There are no isolated reactions within nature.

A symbol of this complexity and of nature’s immense forces is the Gulf Stream, which conveys heat from the tropics to the north and keeps Western Europe warmer by 5 to 10 degrees.

Changes on ocean’s temperature and salinity and accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheets could cause a reversal or even a shutdown of this energy transporter, with huge consequences for global climate that were featured in Hollywood’s production The day after tomorrow.

In 2006, scientists from Cambridge University reported a slow down of the Gulf Stream, which is only one part of an interconnected global system of currents influencing temperatures, winds and rains across the planet.

According to World Wildlife Fund, by 2030 the rain decrease related to climate change could destroy the 55% of the Amazon, a major stabilizer of global temperatures and sea currents.

If deforestation goes that far, the Amazon could affect back the climate by releasing 55bn-96bn tons of CO2 in a few decades.

The permafrost is another threat.

The underground and underwater icecap contains huge deposits of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than CO2, which could dramatically increase the rate of global warming. It is already melting and releasing gas.

The ice in the arctic normally reflects 85% of sun’s radiation, keeping water cool. As it melts to water, that percentage falls to 7%. The result is higher seawater temperature, accelerated melting of ice and rising of the ocean’s level.

Future scenarios

Figures on how climate change will affect our life in the years to come are not definite. There are many factors involved and the uncertainty remains about how far will go global actions to tackle the phenomenon.

But there is no doubt that we will face higher temperatures (1 to 6 degrees in the next 70 years) and more extreme weather events like heat waves, floods, storms, hurricanes, high tides and droughts.

Coasts will suffer higher erosion and sea-level rise (between 0.4 and 1.4 metres) will flood vast low-lying areas and islands, with disastrous consequences for countries relying on tourism-based economies.

Different projections predict the extinction of 30-70% of animal and plant species in the next 50 years, from koalas and seals to those we have not even discovered.

That means approximately 450.000 of the 1.5m species known up to today.

There will be a significant increase in cases of food poisoning, including salmonella; the number of pathogens and bacteria in surface water; deaths and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, and skin cancers, even in countries that today have cool or template climate.

Humankind and nature

Climate is more than an environmental issue.

Governments and international organisations have recognized that it is already causing economical loses due to more frequent natural disasters, and posing serious threats to the security in a world that will host more than 9bn people by 2050.

Institutions like the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in Oslo and the American International Institute for Strategic Studies have warned that the phenomenon puts at stake peace and stability and that climate wars are already taking place in Africa.

Last January, Director-General of World Health Organisation, Margaret Chan, stressed the links between climate change and health and said that humankind is the most threatened species by the climate change.

“We have only a few years to take action. The WHO has evidences of what droughts, floods, storms, heat waves, pollution, under nourishment and spread of transmissible deceases can mean for human health,” she added.

The proposed solutions range from environmental taxes and cutting emissions schemes to the use of controversial biofuels, seaweed crops to absorb extra greenhouse gas and the CO2 storing in underground deposits.

But consensus is growing about the need to change the patterns of development and consumption, promoting cleaner and sustainable technologies and energy sources.

Scientists hold that the effort to reduce emissions by 50-85% by 2050 will take between 0.2 and 3% of the world’s GDP.

It is not a high cost in sight of the frightening and unpredictable consequences that climate change could unleash.

This is not a battle of man against nature. It is not about judging what goes first, man or nature, because they are linked and man is not above nature, as well as nothing is above time.

This is man's quest for the best way to save nature in order to save man's future on the planet.

Sea temperature and hurricanes: Research by the University of London showed that sea surface warming (0.5ºC in the Caribbean Sea between 1996 and 2005) was responsible for approximately 40 percent of the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity between 1996 and 2005. The World Meteorological Organisation reported that 90% of natural disasters in the last years were caused by extreme weather events, due to climate change at a large extent. According satellite images, West Antarctica lost 132 billion tons of ice in 2006, compared to about 83 billion tons in 1996, and Arctic sea ice shrank last September to a low of 4.1 million sq km, more than 1.2 million sq km less than the previous recorded low in 2005. The British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge reported that 87% of the 224 glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula are in retreat and major ice shelves have collapsed.

Human activities and their contribution to the global warming: electricity (24%), manufacturing (11%), sipping (4.5%), aviation industry (2%), refineries (4%) and deforestation (20%). The US contribute the 42% of global fossil fuel CO2 and 34% of combined greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, methane and nitrous oxide).

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for XXI Century by the IPCC, based on the progression of variables like emissions, population growth and land-use:

Scenario B1: Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C . Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm].

Scenario A1T : Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C. Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm].

Scenario B2: Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C. Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm].

Scenario A1B: Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 °C with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 °C. Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm].

Scenario A2: Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 °C with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 °C. Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm].

Scenario A1FI: Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C. Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm].

From Cuban countryside to London

When the Boeing 747-400 was gliding towards Gatwick airport, almost ten hours after taking off from Havana, I could barely imagine that five months later I would be wondering if it has really been only five months.

It seems much longer to me. And I am not talking about experiencing some sort of time machine, but rather about Thomas Mann’s Hans Cartorp, who, when travelling to Magic Mountain, thought journeys not only move us in terms of distance but in terms of time, as well.

From one capital to another and to a different life in just a few hours, it is not hard to imagine considering modern blessings like aviation and scholarships.

But I have to confess it has been a trauma, though a positive one: first time abroad, first passport, first passing by customs, first mobile phone and bank account, first journeys on the metro or walking through supermarkets as big as the hangar for the Jumbo jet that brought me here.

The Monday that I arrived in London it struck me how the train between Gatwick and Victoria station was so clean, modern, perfectly lit up, and moving on a gelatine-like rail-, full of silent people, absorbed in their newspapers, mobile phones, I-Pods or other hight tech gadgets.

A huge airport, with too many planes taking off one after the other, silent people and the cold... Those were my first impressions.

It was Monday 7 AM, maybe the most distressing time in the week for people around the world. Not only for Londoners.

But I soon learned that Londoners make up for the weekly hassle on Friday nights. Many of them go straight from the office to the pub, flock bars and cafes. It is nice sitting in one of the stations in Central London and looking at so many happy, relaxed and above all tipsy people.

While Saturday nights are lively, Friday nights are a sort of door to the weekend, the relieving threshold to two days for entertainment and relaxation after five days of hard work.

Low-budget London

London constantly amazes me and sometimes I even feel a sensation of spinning or vertigo when I walk around. There is so much to see with regard to architecture, history and the multicultural ways of life.

And it gets better because – at least in my experience – much of the best of London is freely available.

Of course, we are talking about one of the Alpha cities in the world, an expensive mega-urban conglomerate in terms of accommodation, transport and meals.

But everything is relative, even here. You do not have to go to fancy restaurants, and there is always the most green and healthy way of transportation, walking as your eyes and mind try to take in all the visual stimuli of the big city.

Anyway, the double-decker buses are not so expensive and allow you to see more in less time, from a high, mobile post of observation.

Relying on a very limited budget, just walking up and down the city, I have already lost count of the tiny and marvellous buildings I have spotted in London, and the scenes I have witnessed in its indoor or open-air markets, from Convent Garden and Camden Town to Portobello Road, Brixton or Burough.

When you feel you need some open space, there are the vast green oases that make you forget you are in a noisy city, such as Green Park, Saint James, Hyde Park or Greenwich.

Other hangouts? Wandering around Soho, Little Venice or Southbank with its human statues, especially at dusk, as well as watching the boats on the Thames pass by from one of the bridges connecting the banks.

The cafe at the National Gallery, which served as a venue for a scene featuring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen in Closer, allows an atonishing view encompassing several London landmarks: Nelson’s Column, the Houses of Parliament, Westminster Abbey or the London Eye.

The Science and Natural Science museums, the Tate Gallery or the British Museum, where I finally got to see the precious Rosetta Stone. The City District - where high steel and glass towers share spaces with the ancient walls of the original London and present a future scenario of urban architecture.

After so much walking, there will always be the perfect cafe or pub to take a break and share experiences with your friends.

Cafes and pubs are omnipresent in London. As for eating, my culinary background has vastly expanded, with the spicy experience of an Indian restaurant marking the beginning of a tasty tour of the world that took me to the Chinese, Portuguese, Italian, Thai, Mexican and Greek cuisines.

A city of the world

World Music or Foods of the world are trendy categories nowadays. Everything is becoming mixed, multinational, and borderless.

Some cities encompass a wide range of human cultures and customs. London is one of the places that over the last decades have built a complex and mixed human landscape on communities and influences from every corner of the world.

London has given me the opportunity to attend a traditional Hindi wedding, or “listening” to people speaking in Polish, Hindi, Arab, French, Chinese and other languages…except in English, as I was travelling by bus.

It was real, though it happened to me just once.

Who knows? Maybe in a few decades will be talking like they do in Code 46.

At tube stations and in markets, I sometimes take some minutes to listen to the buskers (street musicians), performing from rock to a Spanish air, folk music from Britain or South America or even jazz, blues and Steel music.

Definitely, London is a very good environment to exercise tolerance and acceptation of diversity, to appreciate how traditions remain alive in a place where the most powerful trends of modern society thrive.

Old stories and planes

Besides the great diversity and the intensity of the city’s life, living in London has meant being far from home and managing to set up a temporary habitat with some good albeit temporary friendships and a break to my everyday routine, affording me the space to ponder over my life from a distance.

That is a much-needed opportunity in these times of rushing.

I keep laughing everytime I see one of those big posh-pink limousines in the street struggling to turn around the corners. And I keep wondering why British newspapers grow thicker and thicker as their circulation drops.

On foggy nights, out in the city, I imagine the dark old London depicted in films like The man who new too much, the London where Sherlock Holmes (so deeply imprinted in British minds though fictional) solved his cases and Jack The Ripper built his bloody legend.

But current London is all light and music and life. I have never been alone here, never bored.

And I must confess that after these five moths –or more, as they seem to me- I still look up to the skies as I did on the first day. There are so many planes up there.

Mankind, the sea's worst nightmare

Only 3.7 percent of the ocean is not heavily impacted by human activity, and the most of untouched areas are in the poles, where seasonal or permanent ice limits human reach.

A study by the US National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) found that more than 40 percent of oceans are deeply affected by overfishing, pollution and biochemical changes due to global warming.

Scientists from a broad range of universities, NGOs and government agencies, produced a global map on how human activities are eroding sea ecosystems.

Things could be soon changing even in the less affected areas.

“As polar ice sheets disappear with global warming and human activities spread into these areas, there is a risk of rapid degradation of these relatively pristine ecosystems,” said Dr Carrie Kappel, an expert from NCEAS.

Co-author and researcher from Univerty of Hawaii, Dr Kim Selkoe, said that higher temperatures increase plankton levels, and change species composition and ocean circulation.

Mankind fishes over 80 percent of the oceans, and now many species are under threat of extinction. Simultaneously, heavy shipping traffic spills fuel and produce noise pollution, which disturbes many species.

According to the study, published in Science magazine, the most affected waters include large areas of the North Sea, the South and East China Seas, the Caribbean Sea, the east coast of North America, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Bering Sea, and several regions in the western Pacific.

More facts

According to recent reports by scientists and Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

The West Antarctica lost 132 billion tons of ice in 2006, compared to about 83 billion tons in 1996.

The sea surface warming was responsible for approximately 40 percent of the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity between 1996 and 2005.

The Arctic sea ice shrank last September to a low of 4.1 million sq km (1.6 million sq miles), more than 1.2 million sq km less than the previous recorded low in 2005.